How A Depleted Warriors Team Stole Home-Court Advantage In The NBA Finals - FiveThirtyEight

TORONTO — Once upon a time in this series, there was a common question being thrown around about the two-time defending champions, and their embarrassment of riches: Do they even really need Kevin Durant, who’s rehabbing an injured right calf, to win another title?

Yet during Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, the team would have felt fortunate if Durant had been the only player sidelined with an issue. Stephen Curry’s shot was off the mark early, and he went back to the locker room in the early going after reportedly feeling lightheaded and dehydrated. Kevon Looney, the team’s best center the past two rounds, was forced to exit in the first half with a chest contusion. Former Finals MVP Andre Iguodala had a scary moment, and laid face down on the court for almost a minute during the second quarter. And most worth watching going forward: Klay Thompson — whose quick-trigger jump-shooting kept the team afloat in the first half — sustained a hamstring injury that forced him out with eight minutes left.

Still, the Warriors overcame a halftime deficit with one of their patented game-breaking runs, won a war of attrition and survived a somewhat bizarre Raptors’ comeback effort over the final five minutes to avoid a treacherous 2-0 hole and instead even the series at one game apiece as the Finals head to Oakland for Games 3 and 4.

Trailing 59-54 at half, Golden State in the third period embarked on another one of those invincible Mario Star stretches, where it almost looks as if the Warriors are the only team allowed to score. They surged ahead by putting up 18 points in the quarter before Toronto got on the board. And though enormous scoring runs like those are often fueled by the hot shooting of Thompson and Curry (or Durant’s), this one was far more equitable.

Every single basket the Warriors scored during that run was assisted. More broadly, all 22 buckets Golden State got in the entire second half stemmed from an assist, making them the second team in Finals history to assist every single basket over the course of a half, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.¹ Several were back-door lobs, a pretty clear sign that the Warriors were taking advantage of the Raptors paying too much defensive attention to Golden State’s sweet-shooting guards.

The Raptors fell behind by as much as 13, but managed to make things interesting in the closing minutes. Shortly after Thompson went down with just over eight minutes left in the game, the Raptors began utilizing a gimmicky, rarely used defensive scheme called a Box-and-One,² which seeks to punish offenses perceived to have just one true scoring threat.

“I was feeling good, because we stopped their scoring,” Raptors coach Nick Nurse said. “We finally got something figured out to slow them down.”

While the plan might not work moving forward, the maneuver caught Curry and the Warriors off-guard with no other scoring star to lighten the load. They went five-and-a-half minutes without scoring, as Toronto trimmed its deficit from 12 down to just two points. And if it hadn’t been for a critical catch from Shaun Livingston with 10 seconds left — one Kawhi nearly intercepted after Curry threw a dangerous pass to escape a trap — we easily could’ve been looking at a tie game. Livingston secured the ball, surprising Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who was headed the other way in anticipation of a fastbreak. Siakam’s haste left Iguodala all by himself, and Iggy made it count.

The shot would’ve been big for anyone, but it was particularly sweet for Iguodala: Prior to Sunday, he hadn’t hit a triple since Game 6 of the conference semifinal series against the Rockets.

On the subject of that Houston series, this game in some ways felt like the latter stages of the Rockets-Warriors matchup in the sense that Toronto — like Houston — seemed to squander some golden opportunities. Thompson came out on fire early, but the Raptors limited Curry for the vast majority of the first half, as he missed his first six shots. Curry didn’t get his first basket until there were four minutes left until halftime. (Klay was fantastic in the first half of Game 6 against Houston, holding down the fort during a scoreless first half from Curry, who went off for 33 second-half points.) And Thompson’s late injury gave Toronto a window to defend far more aggressively, much like Durant’s injury figured to give the Rockets a better shot at advancing.

There’s an argument to be made that this was a missed opportunity for Toronto (aside from their blown lead after halftime, the Raptors came up with nothing on three straight possessions in the final four minutes of play despite having wide-open looks). But the Warriors deserve full credit for finding a way to hold on, too. A number of important factors stood out in their victory.

The defensive shifts — like pulling Draymond Green off of Pascal Siakam and putting him on Kyle Lowry instead, which allowed Green to roam as a disruptive help defender — were masterful in some cases. Siakam starred in Game 1, but didn’t do nearly as much against Iguodala. And Thompson defended Kawhi, who still saw plenty of defenders in his face, but wasn’t hounded nearly as much as he was in the series opener. The Warriors dialed back their pressure in hopes of surrendering fewer wide-open looks to Toronto’s role players, and the decision paid off. (Leonard had 34 points still, but he had just three assists on Sunday — down considerably from the seven dimes per game he’d averaged over his three previous outings.)

And DeMarcus Cousins, whose return from injury has presumably gotten far less attention because of Durant, was impactful in just his second game back. He logged 11 points, 10 boards and six assists in just 28 minutes, while registering a team-best +12.³

Sure, there’s plenty to wonder about still for this club — particularly if Thompson is hobbled and can’t play in Game 3,⁴ and if Durant is still another game or two away from returning. Without Thompson and Durant, Toronto could continue to use a once-unthinkable defensive strategy against Curry and his teammates.

But regardless of how shorthanded Golden State might be come Game 3 on Wednesday, the fact that the Warriors found a way to get Game 2 — despite everything that seemed to be going wrong — likely gave them all the confidence they need to take this series and retain the title.

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